October 2026 Property Market Wrap

What buyers believe comes next

Property analyst Michael Matusik recently compared a decade of Australian dwelling values with interest rate levels and cash rate changes, and found neither link was particularly strong. His point is a useful one. Markets respond less to today’s numbers and more to what people expect tomorrow. Employment, supply, taxation and confidence all play a part, and the recent negative gearing and capital gains tax changes add another layer of uncertainty for investors. Sometimes the anticipation of change matters more than the change itself.

That’s why we encourage our clients to look past the headlines and focus on the fundamentals of the property and the location.

More choice, less rush

Cotality says national median house prices fell 1.4% over September, and the national dwelling median has now dropped for seven months in a row. Cotality’s Tim Lawless says buyers have more stock to choose from and there is not the same urgency to buy as there was a year ago.

Affordability has also improved a little. HIA reports affordability improved across most markets in the September quarter, led by Brisbane with a 5.6% improvement, followed by Perth (5.2%) and Sydney (4.9%). HIA warns this is likely to be short-lived, with 11 million households chasing 10 million homes and population growth adding to demand.

For home buyers with finance in place, this is a good window to take your time, do your homework and negotiate well.

Rates, inflation and what you can control

The Reserve Bank has increased rates five times this year. Finder estimates households with an average mortgage are paying around $540 more per month than at the beginning of the year.

No one can say when rates will turn, so we focus on what you can control:

Good buying decisions hold up in any rate cycle.

Investors: the ATO is watching valuations

From July 2027, the 50% capital gains tax discount will be replaced with a 30% minimum tax rate on capital gains. If you already owned an investment property before the new rules were announced, gains made up to the end of June 2027 will be worked out under the old system, and gains after that under the new one.

Many investors are getting valuations done now. The ATO has warned it will be looking out for inflated valuations, and says valuations from professional valuers are generally more credible than those from someone who isn’t a professional valuer. Talk to your accountant about whether you need one.

General information only, not tax or financial advice.

Why we’re positive about the Central Coast, Noosa and Brisbane

Across the board, we’re positive about the markets we work in.

On the Central Coast, we’re seeing more buyers from Sydney recognise the value, with coastal living, good transport links and prices well below the city.

Noosa and the wider Sunshine Coast continue to draw buyers looking for lifestyle and long-term value.

South East Queensland remains a favourite for people moving interstate, and Brisbane’s Olympic build is adding infrastructure and jobs to the region well ahead of 2032.

We see great things ahead for all three markets.

October 2026 property market: your questions answered